Nrog rau kev lag luam ntawm Tesla humanoid robots thiab kev nrawm ntawm AI thev naus laus zis xws li ChatGPT, kev sib cuam tshuam thiab kev txawj ntse tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. Raws li tus neeg nqa khoom zoo tshaj plaws ntawm "embodied txawj ntse", humanoid robots sawv ntawm kev sib tshuam ntawm ntau qhov kev lag luam resonance thiab xav tias yuav ua rau kev hloov pauv kev lag luam yav tom ntej.
Yuav kom ua tiav lub hom phiaj pheej yig ntawm 20000 US las ib humanoid neeg hlau, cov txheej txheem industrialization tsis tuaj yeem sib cais los ntawm kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov khoom siv kho vajtse hauv tsev. Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam loj ntawm humanoid robots yav tom ntej yuav tsum mus txog qib trillion, nrog rau tus nqi ntawm humanoid neeg hlau qhov chaw suav txog 61%, uas yuav tsav lub hiav txwv xiav haiv neeg ntawm cov neeg hlau los teeb tsa lub nkoj.
Kev hloov pauv tau yooj yim thiab meej ntawm humanoid robots xav tau kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev sib koom ua ke sib txawv, thiab kev ua haujlwm yooj yim ntawm cov pob qij txha inevitably xav tau "pab" ntawm cov khoom sib kis tau zoo. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no los ntawm Huatai Securities Research Institute, Tesla tus tib neeg neeg hlau muaj kwv yees li 40 pob qij txha thoob plaws hauv nws lub cev, uas tau sib koom ua ke los ntawm cov tshuab hluav taws xob, cov kab hluav taws xob, thiab cov tes ua kom zoo. Tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov pob qij txha yog kwv yees li 410000 yuan, nrog rau kev sib haum xeeb reducers ib leeg suav txog li 10%.
Piv nrog rau lwm yam kis tau tus mob, lub harmonic reducer, raws li ib tug hom nrog high kis tau tus mob piv, me me ntim, thiab lub teeb yuag, yog tsim nyog rau daim ntawv thov nyob rau hauv robots sib koom modules.
Hauv kev lag luam neeg hlau tsim sai sai, tus nqi siab ntawm kev sib haum xeeb txo qis yog pom tseeb, thiab cov neeg muaj koob muaj npe ntawm cov neeg hlau yuav coj lub sijhawm loj rau kev sib haum xeeb.
Raws li tus thawj coj hauv kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam hauv kev sib haum xeeb, Green Harmonic tau ua tiav kev tsim khoom lag luam thiab kev siv loj ntawm kev sib haum xeeb hauv Suav teb, rhuav tshem cov kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv kev lag luam ntawm cov neeg hlau harmonic reducers hauv Suav teb.
Nyob rau yav tsaus ntuj ntawm Lub Yim Hli 30th, Green Harmonic tau hais tias nws cov nyiaj tau los ua haujlwm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no yog 172 lab yuan, txo qis ntawm 29.52% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv lag luam ntawm lub tuam txhab tau teev npe yog 50.6411 lab yuan, txo qis ntawm 44.74% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Kev poob haujlwm hauv kev ua haujlwm feem ntau yog los ntawm kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam nyiaj tau los, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
Hais txog kev ua haujlwm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau txheeb xyuas tias lub tuam txhab tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev lag luam sluggish hauv 3C cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, kev lag luam semiconductor thiab lwm yam kev lag luam, thiab kev poob qis ntawm cov peev txheej ruaj khov hauv kev lag luam saum toj no. tso siab rau qhov kev thov ntawm downstream industrial robots thiab lwm yam kev lag luam ntawm lub tuam txhab. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov xwm txheej saum toj no ntawm qhov kev thov rau kev lag luam robots raug xa mus rau qhov kev thov sab ntawm lub tuam txhab cov khoom, uas ua rau muaj qee yam cuam tshuam rau lub tuam txhab kev muag khoom thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm.
Hais txog tag nrho cov xwm txheej ntawm kev lag luam harmonic reducer, daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias, tau tsav los ntawm cov cai thiab cov kev lag luam hauv qab loj, kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Muaj kev nce hauv cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev koom nrog kev tshawb fawb thiab tsim cov khoom sib haum xeeb, kev txhim kho hauv qib kev ua haujlwm, maj mam ntxiv cov khoom lag luam, thiab ua tiav kev ua tiav hauv kev sib koom tes ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev. Cov lag luam ywj pheej hauv tsev twb tau nyob hauv qee qhov kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev los ntawm kev koom tes nrog cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm precision reducer kev lag luam ntawm ob lub nplhaib tsav yog 315 lab yuan, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 66.35%, nrog ib tug tseem ceeb nce. Shuanghuan Transmission Holdings 'subiary, Huandong Technology, nquag teb rau cov kev lag luam tshiab thiab cov kev sib tw, thiab tseem ua rau kev siv zog hauv kev lag luam neeg hlau precision reducer.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias nrog kev xav tau ntau ntxiv hauv kev lag luam xws li photovoltaics, lithium-ion roj teeb, thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb, cov tuam txhab tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv. Kev tsim khoom thiab muag khoom ntawm RV reducer kev lag luam ntawm Environmental Technology neeg hlau tau nce ntau xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab lub hli nyob rau lub hli, thiab kev lag luam feem ntau tau nce ntxiv. Ua tsaug rau kev sib sib zog nqus ntawm kev lag luam saw zoo sib koom tes, nws cov kev sib haum xeeb reducer kev lag luam tau ua tiav cov khoom ruaj khov ntawm ntau cov qauv, thiab cov peev txheej tsim tau raug tso tawm thiab nce sai.
Lwm qhov kev sib haum xeeb reducer neeg uas ua ntawv, Dalide, tau ua raws li cov qauv ntawm miniaturization, kev sib koom ua ke, thiab kev sib koom ua ke hauv kev lag luam thiab tau cog lus rau kev sib koom ua ke cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv xyoo tas los. Lub tuam txhab tau tsim cov khoom lag luam sib xyaw ua ke ntawm reducer + lub cev muaj zog + tsav nyob ib puag ncig kev lag luam automation thiab kev lag luam neeg hlau, thiab tau tsim cov khoom lag luam xws li "precision planetary reducer + servo motor + tsav" integrated tshuab, "RV reducer + servo motor + tsav" integrated tshuab, thiab "harmonic reducer + servo motor + tsav" kev sib xyaw tshuab, ua tiav cov khoom tsim kho dua tshiab.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm yog 540 lab yuan, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 19.03%, thiab tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 21.17%. Kev khiav hauj lwm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm nws cov lag luam reducer yog 122 lab yuan, suav txog 22.70% ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ua haujlwm.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias Tuam Tshoj yog nyob rau lub sijhawm tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhim kho thiab txhim kho nws cov khoom lag luam, thiab yuav tsum muaj kev txhim kho ruaj khov. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rov qab los thiab nce kev lag luam tawm sab nraud rau Tuam Tshoj yuav ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov thiab kev pheej hmoo rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam. Cov reducers thiab gearmotors yog cov khoom siv dav dav hauv kev tsim khoom lag luam, nrog rau ntau yam kev siv qis qis thiab kev sib raug zoo macroeconomic. Yog tias qhov kev rov qab nrawm ntawm kev tsim khoom lag luam qeeb zuj zus yav tom ntej, nws yuav cuam tshuam rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam.
Ntxiv rau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv txo qis ntawm cov neeg hlau, kev tswj cov lus tsa suab kuj tau raug xa mus rau "lub hlwb" ntawm cov khoom siv high-end xws li robots.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv cuam tshuam, lub ntiaj teb kev txav chaw tswj kev lag luam hauv 2022 yuav tsum ncav cuag $ 15.5 nphom, thiab xav tias yuav ncav cuag $ 20 nphom los ntawm 2027. Lub sijhawm no, qhov sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev loj hlob yog 5.2%, feem ntau vim qhov kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm kev lag luam neeg hlau xav tau thiab kev txhim kho txuas ntxiv ntawm Kev Lag Luam 4.0.
Tam sim no, cov neeg koom tseem ceeb hauv kev tswj hwm kev ua haujlwm siab thiab servo tsav cov khoom lag luam hauv khw yog cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws. Cov lag luam txawv teb chaws yog nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov khoom lag luam nplua nuj thiab kev loj hlob. Siv Beifu ua piv txwv, nws qhov muag thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2022 yog 1.515 billion euros, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 28%.
Cov neeg koom hauv kev lag luam feem ntau suav nrog Hechuan Technology, Huazhong CNC, Eston, Leisai Intelligence, Huichuan Technology, Gu High Tech, thiab lwm yam. Cov lag luam no tau ua tiav qee yam kev ua tiav hauv cov thev naus laus zis thiab kev lag luam sib koom ua lag luam hauv kev tswj kev txav, servo tsav, thiab lwm yam.
Cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev sawv cev los ntawm Gu High tech, Lei Sai Intelligent, thiab Zhongweixing tau tuav ntau dua 70% ntawm kev ua lag luam. Kev lag luam xws li Huichuan Technology thiab Hechuan Technology tau ua tiav hauv kev lag luam servo, tab sis tseem muaj chaw tseem ceeb rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev.
Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, Gu High Tech tau ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 180 lab yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 3.47%. Hechuan Technology ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 601.6938 lab yuan, nce 28.89% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm, General Automation yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov nyiaj tau los rau Hechuan Technology, ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 55.13622 lab yuan, nce 23.20% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.
Nrog rau kev nce nqi ntawm kev ua haujlwm thiab qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov pej xeem cov nyiaj faib tawm, muaj qhov xav tau ceev ceev rau kev hloov pauv thiab kho dua tshiab ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tsim khoom. "Kev hloov tshuab" tau dhau los ua ib qho kev txhim kho uas yuav tsum tau ua, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm kev tswj kev txav thiab kev lag luam ntse tsim muaj kev tsav tsheb mus ntev.
Ntxiv nrog rau kev hloov pauv thiab hloov kho cov kev xav tau ntawm cov kev lag luam ib txwm muaj, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim khoom lag luam tawm tshiab uas sawv cev los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, lub zog tshiab, neeg hlau, 3C electronics, thiab lwm yam yog nce sai. Daim ntawv thov teb ntawm kev tswj cov lus tsa suab thiab kev tsim khoom ntse tau nthuav dav tas li, uas yuav txhawb kev txhim kho kev lag luam ntxiv.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, qhov tsis paub meej ntawm qhov chaw macro, thiab kev sib tw ntawm kev lag luam tseem ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo rau cov tuam txhab tseem ceeb hauv tsev. Tsuas yog los ntawm kev txuas ntxiv dag zog rau cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb thiab nquag txhim kho kev sib tw tuaj yeem peb tswj hwm peb txoj haujlwm hauv kev ua lag luam.